Timing the market is difficult. To be successful, you have to make two investment decisions correctly: one to sell and one to buy. If you get either wrong in the short term you are out of luck. In addition, investors should realize that:

1. Stock markets go up more often than they go down.

2. When stock markets decline they tend to decline very quickly. That is, short-term losses are more severe than short-term gains.

3. The bulk of the gains posted by the stock market are posted in a very short time. In short, if you miss one or two good days in the stock market you will forgo the bulk of the gains.

Not many investors are good timers. “The Portable Pension Fiduciary,” by John H. Ilkiw, noted the results of a comprehensive study of institutional investors, such as mutual fund and pension fund managers. The study concluded that the median money manager added some value by selecting investments that outperform the market. The best money managers added more than 2 percent per year due to stock selection. However the median money manager lost value by timing the market. Thus, investors should realize that marketing timing can add value but that there are better strategies that increase returns over the long term, incur less risk, and have a higher probability of success.

One of the reasons why it is so difficult to time correctly is due to the difficulty of removing emotion from your investment decision. Investors who invest on emotion tend to overreact: they invest when prices are high and sell when prices are low. Professional money managers, who can remove emotion from their investment decisions, can add value by timing their investments correctly, but the bulk of their excess rates of return are still generated through security selection and other investment strategies. Investors who want to increase their rate of return through market timing should consider a good Tactical Asset Allocation fund. These funds aim to add value by changing the investment mix between cash, bonds, and stocks following strict protocols and models, rather than emotion-based market timing.

A hedge fund is thus a private investment fund, which invests in a variety of different investments. The general partner chooses the different investments and also handles all of the trading activity and day-to-day operations of the fund. The investor or the limited partners invest most of the money and participate in the gains of the fund. The general manager usually charges a small management fee and a large incentive bonus if they earn a high rate of return.

While this may sound a lot like a mutual fund, there are major differences between mutual fund and hedge fund:

1. Mutual funds are operated by mutual fund or investment companies and are heavily regulated. Hedge funds, as private funds, have far fewer restrictions and regulations.

2. Mutual fund companies invest their client’s money, while hedge funds invest their client’s money and their own money in the underlying investments.

3. Hedge funds charge a performance bonus: usually 20 percent of all the gains above a certain hurdle rate, which is in line with equity market returns. Some hedge funds have been able to generate annual rates of return of 50 percent or more, even during difficult market environments.

4. Mutual funds have disclosure and other requirements that prohibit a fund from investing in derivative products, using leverage, short selling, taking too large a position in one investment, or investing in commodities. Hedge funds are free to invest however they wish.

5. Hedge funds are not permitted to solicit investments, which is likely why you hear very little about these funds. During the previous five years some of these funds have doubled, tripled, quadrupled in value or more. However, hedge funds do incur large risks and just as many funds have disappeared after losing big.

A global equity fund invests in stock markets around the world. These funds will have a portion of their investments invested in North America. Europe, and Asia. Some of these funds will own hundreds of securities in order to participate in the growth prospects of many firms while diversifying the risk associated with investing in different companies. A good global equity fund will be a foundation for a well-diversified mutual fund portfolio for almost any investor. Investors could consider including the AGF International Value Fund, the BPI Global Equity Fund, or the Fidelity International Portfolio Fund in their portfolios.

A global balanced fund is a fund that invests in both stock and bond markets around the world. These funds will also always have a portion of their investments invested in stock and bond markets located in North America, Europe, and Asia. They are more conservative than global equity funds because they invest in a combination of stocks and bonds, which affect the fund’s performance. Over the long term these funds will provide a lower rate of return for investors but they will also exhibit a lot less risk than a global equity fund. They exhibit less risk because bonds are less volatile than stocks; they do not decline in value to the same magnitude or at the same time as global equity funds. A conservative investor should find a good global balanced fund that will serve as a good foundation for a diversified portfolio.